Day 22

Public Opinion: Analyzing polls about polling

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• Explain how public opinion data that can impact elections and policy debates is affected by such scientific polling types and methods as:
• Type of poll (opinion polls, benchmark or tracking polls, entrance and exit polls)
• Sampling techniques, identification of respondents, mass survey or focus group, sampling error
• Type and format of questions

• Describe the relationship between scientific polling and elections and policy debates is affected by the:
• Importance of public opinion as a source of political influence in a given election or policy debate
• Reliability and veracity of public opinion data

Opener: ASAP

Strategists and operatives should not design a strategy based off today's conditions. They should be setting a strategy for where the trajectory of polling is headed. 

    - James Carville, campaign strategist/political commentator, following the 2016 presidential election.

Activity #1: Polling - Analysis

#1

#2

Activity #2: -  N-50 - Polling

LD - Polling a sampling or collection of opinions on a subject, taken from either a representative or random group of persons for the purpose of analysis.

SD - 

Examples - Telephone, internet, mail-in, exit polling

Non-Examples - US Census, election "polls", 

Related terms - Elections, Primaries, Political Parties

Activity #3 - Build Your Own Poll - Part II

Open the link below and take another look at the polling questions that you created last class. 

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1BX0rvwY1QPtGrU9MSfgzWZzsYVcnur8e52wAtRMgQgQ/edit?usp=sharing

Choose what you believe is your best polling question and submit it via the link below to contribute to the "AP Gov 2019 Election Issue Poll".  

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1GoSjqnOy_viPX5sqGQ009f_EV5vMWCe_V_42fplyOL8/edit?usp=sharing

Simply press the + button on the right-hand side of the screen to add a question.

Close - Political Socialization and Polling Quiz

10 M.C. questions

Day 21

Public Opinion: Polling

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• Explain how public opinion data that can impact elections and policy debates is affected by such scientific polling types and methods as:
• Type of poll (opinion polls, benchmark or tracking polls, entrance and exit polls)
• Sampling techniques, identification of respondents, mass survey or focus group, sampling error
• Type and format of questions

• Describe the relationship between scientific polling and elections and policy debates is affected by the:
• Importance of public opinion as a source of political influence in a given election or policy debate
• Reliability and veracity of public opinion data

When people note that more and more voters are cutting their landline phones and that more and more people are refusing to pick up phone calls from numbers they don't know, they are identifying problems that the polling industry has long struggled with and continue to try to adapt to.

-Kristen Soltis Anderson, 35 year old conservative writer and journalist

Opener:  Quickwrite - 3 minutes

Physicians often make life or death decisions about medical treatment based on the testing of just a few drops of blood.  Politicians often pin their entire career ambitions based on the outcome of a survey of just 1,000 voters.  

What are two critical considerations in both of these scenarios when experts examine these samples?


Activity #1: Polling - Mini-lecture

1. Types of Polls
1. Opinion Poll
2. Tracking Poll
3. Exit Poll
4. 
   
2. Sampling
1. Probability sampling is the basis for most survey research. 
1. If selected correctly, a randomly selected small sample of a population of people can represent the attitudes, opinions, or projected behavior of all of the people.
2. The fundamental goal of a survey is to come up with the same results that would have been obtained had every member of a population been interviewed
3. Sampling error
3. Selecting a Random Sample
1. Considerations of geography
1. Rural, urban, suburban
2. Methodology
1. Random vs. Representative
2. Mail, landline, cell phone, email, online advert to take poll
3. Demographics - Compared to census data
1. Age
2. Education
3. Occupation
4. Income
5. Race
6. Gender
7. Voter registration status

For those seeking greater understanding of how the method for administering surveys can change data:  The transition away from phone polling and to internet polling

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/what-our-transition-to-online-polling-means-for-decades-of-phone-survey-trends/

Activity #2: -  Pollin' Probs - Worktime

Analyze each of the following polling questions and identify the potential issues with each. Record these problems or questions in your notebook.

1. A random anonymous telephone survey of 2,112 people asked, “Do you support or oppose the the President meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un?” The answer choices were support or oppose.

2. A survey of 1,229 people exiting a local Wal-Mart asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of how Congress is handling the economy?” The answer choices were approve or disapprove.

3. A random online survey of 850 people asked, “How likely are you to vote in the 2020 primary election?” The answer choices were very likely, likely, unlikely, not very likely.

4. A random phone survey of 1,273 people asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the legalization of marijuana?” The answer choices were: approve, disapprove, no opinion

5. A random telephone survey of 1,333 people asked, “What should be done to improve healthcare?”

6. A mail-in survey of 1,266 people asked, “Which party to you more closely identify with?” The answer choices were: Democrat or Republican

7. A random telephone survey of 1,319 people asked, “Don’t you agree that police officers in Kansas City are underpaid?” The answer choices were: Agree, Disagree, No Opinion

8. An survey advertised on Instafacechatweet of 1,285 people asked, “Do you favor lowering the drinking age to 18?” The answer choices were: Strongly favor, Favor, No Opinion, Oppose, Strongly Oppose

9. A random telephone survey of 1470 people in Kansas City asked, “Do you support the return of voting rights to people convicted of violent felonies?” The answer choices were: Strongly support, Support, No Opinion, Oppose, Strongly Oppose.

10. An online poll asked people if the death penalty should be repealed. There were 2,385 responses. The answer choices were: Repeal the death penalty, Keep the death penalty

Practice Question 

In a public opinion poll of a representative sample of a population, 1,200 people were asked to agree, disagree, or express neutrality toward the following statements.

Statement A: The government should spend more money on welfare.
Result: 35·percent of the respondents agreed.
Statement B: The government should spend more money on helping the poor. 
Result: 60·percent of respondents agreed.

39. Which of the following most likely accounts for the different results? (A) The questions were not open-ended.
    (B) There were no welfare recipients in the sample.
    (C) The sample size was not large enough to be reliable.
    (D) The questions contained a difference in wording. 

Close - Build your own poll!

Follow the link below.  With your partner you will create 3 of your own polling questions and then reflect on how a candidate might use the data from the poll to shape their policies.

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1BX0rvwY1QPtGrU9MSfgzWZzsYVcnur8e52wAtRMgQgQ/edit?usp=sharing

Day 20

Political Ideologies and Beliefs: Political Economy

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• The balancing dynamic of individual liberty and government efforts to promote stability and order has been reflected in policy debates and their outcomes over time. 
• Liberal ideologies favor more governmental regulation of the marketplace, conservative ideologies favor fewer regulations, and libertarian ideologies favor little or no regulation of the marketplace beyond the protection of property rights and voluntary trade. 
• Ideological differences on marketplace regulation are based on different theoretical support, including Keynesian and supply-side positions on monetary and fiscal policies promoted by the president, Congress, and the Federal Reserve.

When people note that more and more voters are cutting their landline phones and that more and more people are refusing to pick up phone calls from numbers they don't know, they are identifying problems that the polling industry has long struggled with and continue to try to adapt to.

• Kristen Soltis Anderson, 35 year old conservative writer and journalist

Opener:  ASAP - In detail 

Efforts to promote financial stability through adjustments in interest rates would increase the volatility of inflation and employment. As a result, I believe a macro-prudential approach to supervision and regulation needs to play the primary role. 

• Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair,  July 2014

Activity #1:  Just how important are each of the following in the development of people's political ideology?  Rate them according to your own perceptions on a scale of 1-10 (10 being most important).

1. Unemployment
2. Inflation
3. Minimum wage
4. National debt
5. Taxes
6. Welfare programs
7. Infrastructure

Activity #2: - Beard's Argument.  

In 1913, a scholar named Charles Beard wrote a controversial book entitled:  An Economic Interpretation of the US Constitution.  In his book, Beard claimed that the US Constitution, and the Federalist Papers that supported it, was not really a document of political ideals, but instead a way in which the founders could safeguard  their own property and wealth. 

The leaders who supported the Constitution in the ratifying conventions represented the same economic groups as the members of the Philadelphia Convention; and in a large number of instances they were also directly and personally interested in the outcome of their efforts.  

• Charles Beard, 1913

With a partner, use your copy of the US Constitution and amendments to identify and explain at least 5 specific powers given to the US government that can have an economic impact on the US economy. 

Then, address each of the following for each identified economic power:

1. Explain how does the exercise of this power can impact the overall state of the US economy.
2. Identify specific examples of how government has used this power in the past, AND discuss the impact of that policy/action.
3. To what extent do you think the interpretation and use of this power impacts people's political views?

Homework: Argumentative Essay

• Develop and argument that explains which political ideology best achieve's the founder's intent to meet the stated goals in the Preamble of the US Constitution.

• Your essay must:
• Articulate a defensible claim or thesis that responds to the prompt and establishes a line of reasoning.
• Support your claim with at least TWO pieces of accurate and relevant information:
• At least ONE foundational document
• US Constitution
• Federalist #10 http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp
• Brutus 1 http://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/brutus-i/
• Use a second piece of evidence from another foundational document from the list or from your own study of political ideology
• Use reasoning to explain why your evidence supports your claim
• Respond to an opposing or alternative perspective using refutation, concession, or rebuttal

0. Scoring the Argument Essay
   A good response should:
   
• 􏰀  Articulate a defensible claim or thesis that responds to the question and establishes a line of reasoning (0–1 point) 
  
• 􏰀  Describe one piece of evidence that is accurately linked to the topic of the question
  (1 out of 3 points); use one piece of specific and relevant evidence to support the argument (2 out of 3 points); use two pieces of specific and relevant evidence to support the argument (3 out of 3 points) 
  
• 􏰀  Explain how or why the evidence supports the claim or thesis (0–1 point) 
  
• 􏰀  Respond to an opposing or alternate perspective using refutation, concession, or rebuttal that is consistent with the argument (0–1 point) 

Close - Post a question!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15z33ZzvDy0cDCaCKkYCjXQcYksSVHeARHTGETG1itN8/edit?usp=sharing

Day 19

Political Ideologies and Beliefs: Political Socialization

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• 
  

  Explain how the ideologies of the two major parties shape policy debates. 
• 
  
  Explain how U.S. political culture (e.g., values, attitudes, and beliefs) influences the formation, goals, and implementation of public policy over time. 
• Describe different political ideologies regarding the role of government in regulating the marketplace. 

When people note that more and more voters are cutting their landline phones and that more and more people are refusing to pick up phone calls from numbers they don't know, they are identifying problems that the polling industry has long struggled with and continue to try to adapt to.

-Kristen Soltis Anderson, 35 year old conservative writer and journalist
      

Opener:  Political Typologies Quiz 

http://www.people-press.org/quiz/political-typology/group/54da4570/?groupID=oHkzi

Activity #1:  Read through the brief article below.  While you are reading, address each of the following:

1.  What is the most valuable idea or concept discussed in the article?
2.  How might this information be useful for most people?
3.  Identify one point in which you would question or disagree with the author.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/23/in-polarized-era-fewer-americans-hold-a-mix-of-conservative-and-liberal-views/

Once you have finished the reading and answered the question, compare your answers with your neighbor.  How do your answers compare?

Activity #2: -  N-50 - Political Parties

LD - Political party is an organized group of people, often with common views, who come together to contest elections and hold power in the government. The party agrees on some proposed policies and programs, with a view to promoting the collective good or furthering their supporters' interests.

SD - 

Examples - 

Non-Examples - 

Related terms - 

Close - Post a question!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15z33ZzvDy0cDCaCKkYCjXQcYksSVHeARHTGETG1itN8/edit?usp=sharing

Day 18

Political Ideologies and Beliefs: Political Socialization

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• Explain the relationship between core beliefs of U.S. citizens and attitudes about the role of government. 
• Explain how cultural factors influence political attitudes and socialization. 
• 
  
  Explain how U.S. political culture (e.g., values, attitudes, and beliefs) influences the formation, goals, and implementation of public policy over time. 

Paid family leave won’t only make life easier for Moms and Dads – it will also keep skilled, talented Americans in the workforce and grow our economy. That’s why every other advanced country already has it.
      - Hillary Clinton in a speech in Warren, Michigan 2016

Opener:  Political Socialization - Quickwrite - 5 minutes

2A - To what extent will the transition toward social media, rather than traditional mass media, alter the political socialization process?

4A - Explain how expanding the right to vote to American citizens over the last 150 years has influenced how we form our political views.

When time is up, trade with a partner and comment on the following.
1.  Is their view/claim clear and "up front"?
2.  Do they provide a line of reasoning?
3.  Do you agree with them?

Activity #1:  Political Socialization - Mini - Lecture

• Political ideologies affect the relationship between citizens and with the federal government 

• Different interpretations of shared core values 
• individualism
• equality of opportunity
• free enterprise
• rule of law
• limited government

• Political Socialization 
• Family, schools, peers, media, and social environments 
• U.S. political culture has both influenced and been influenced by the values of other countries. 
• Generational and lifecycle effects
• Relative importance of major political events to the development of individual political attitudes 

• Because the U.S. electorate is diverse, public policies generated at any given time reflect the attitudes and beliefs of citizens who choose to participate in politics at that time.

Activity #2: -  Statistical Analysis - You have 8 minutes to examine the graph below and answer the questions.

1.  Which party's ideology is more likely to be transferred between generations?
2.  How might an elected politician use such data when attempting to win votes among "independents"?
3.  Predict how this graph may have changed between 1992 and today.


Close - Post a question!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15z33ZzvDy0cDCaCKkYCjXQcYksSVHeARHTGETG1itN8/edit?usp=sharing

Day 16 - Liberties and Rights Conclusion and Assessment

Civil Liberties and Civil Rights

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• Explain how the U.S. Constitution protects individual liberties and rights.
• Describe the rights protected in the Bill of Rights.
• Explain the extent to which the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the First and Second Amendments reflects a commitment to individual liberty.

Through the U.S. Constitution, but primarily through the Bill of Rights and the Fourteenth Amendment, citizens and groups have attempted to limit national and state governments to prevent them from infringing upon individual rights and from denying equal protection under the law. 

However, it has sometimes been argued that these legal protections have been used to slow reforms and restrict freedoms of others in the name of social order.

Opener:  Current Case Review - You make the call

From the selected cases heard in 2018-2019 docket, those cases regarding civil rights or liberties are reviewed by students who then "make the call".

1.  Determine which civil liberty/amendment is in question.

2.  Is there already a rule or precedent that will likely guide the court’s decision?

3.  If you were the judge, what would say?  Explain

https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018

Activity #1 -  Civil Rights/Civil Liberties Essay

Students write the "other" essay that they chose not to write for homework.  These will act as the written assessment for the unit on civil rights and civil liberties.

Whichever you did not write for homework, the other should be written today.

Essay #1 - Quantitative Analysis

1.  Which policy proposal has enjoyed the strongest support following September 11, 2001? 1 pt.

2.  Describe a trend in the data and draw conclusions about voter support for increased security measures after 2001. 2 pts.

3.  Explain how the information in the graphic relates to civil liberties and majority rule. 3 pts.


Essay #2 - Argument development

Develop an argument that explains whether Congress or the Supreme Court is best suited to settle disputes regarding civil rights and/or civil liberties.

• Articulate a defensible claim or thesis that responds to the prompt and establishes a line of reasoning. 1 pt.*
• Support your claim with at least TWO pieces of accurate and relevant information: 2 pts.
• At least ONE piece of evidence must be from one of the following documents:
• Federalist 78
• Bill of Rights
• Letter from a Birmingham Jail
• Use a SECOND piece of evidence from another document from the list, or your study of civil liberties/civil rights.

• Use reasoning to explain why your evidence supports your claim/thesis. 2 pts.

• Respond to an opposing perspective using refutation, concession, or rebuttal. 1 pt.

*Note, you MUST earn this point in order to earn 5 of the next 6 points

Close - CWE presentations

Day 17

Intro to Political Ideologies and Beliefs: Political Socialization

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• Explain the relationship between core beliefs of U.S. citizens and attitudes about the role of government. 
• Explain how cultural factors influence political attitudes and socialization. 

We need to reject any politics that targets people because of race or religion. This isn't a matter of political correctness. It's a matter of understanding what makes us strong. The world respects us not just for our arsenal; it respects us for our diversity and our openness and the way we respect every faith.

     - Former President Barack Obama, State of the Union Address, 2016

Opener:  Statistical Analysis - TIP-C + M.C.

1.  Which of the following is a potential consequence of the trend present in the chart above?

     a.  Campaign fund raising will become less important in future elections as more voters turn to                social media.
     b.  Social media platforms will likely be forced to comply with Federal Election Commission                    restrictions and guidelines.
     c.  Younger voters will likely demonstrate an increased involvement in politics and elections                    compared to previous generations.
     d.  New forms of mass communication can influence how younger citizens choose to learn about              and support candidates.

Activity #1:  Political Socialization - U-Debate

Below is a series of statements designed to encourage you to think about an begin forming your stance on relevant issues regarding political socialization.  Once you have formed your view on each statement, and placed yourself of the U continuum, you should prepare to do the following:

To enter the debate you should...

• Make your claim
• Outline your reasoning
• Address a counter argument and explain why you think that it is incorrect

Statements for debate:

1.  Public schools are best suited to help students form their political views.

2.  Political ads should be limited to an equal number for each candidate in an election and should have to be approved by an appropriate bureaucratic agency.

3.  Most voters choose which political party to support based upon what government policies best benefit them over personal ideology or beliefs.

Activity #2: -  Political Socialization - Quickwrite

In no more than 5-6 sentences, explain how expanding the right to vote to American citizens over the last 150 years has influenced how we form our political views.

Close - Post a question!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15z33ZzvDy0cDCaCKkYCjXQcYksSVHeARHTGETG1itN8/edit?usp=sharing

https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018/18-281

Day 16 - Liberties and Rights Conclusion and Assessment

Civil Liberties and Civil Rights

Learning Targets:  Students will be able to....

• Explain how the U.S. Constitution protects individual liberties and rights.
• Describe the rights protected in the Bill of Rights.
• Explain the extent to which the Supreme Court’s interpretation of the First and Second Amendments reflects a commitment to individual liberty.

Through the U.S. Constitution, but primarily through the Bill of Rights and the Fourteenth Amendment, citizens and groups have attempted to limit national and state governments to prevent them from infringing upon individual rights and from denying equal protection under the law. 

However, it has sometimes been argued that these legal protections have been used to slow reforms and restrict freedoms of others in the name of social order.

Opener:  Current Case Review - You make the call

From the selected cases heard in 2018-2019 docket, those cases regarding civil rights or liberties are reviewed by students who then "make the call".

https://www.oyez.org/cases/2018

Activity #1 -  Civil Rights/Civil Liberties Essay

Students write the "other" essay that they chose not to write for homework.  These will act as the written assessment for the unit on civil rights and civil liberties.

Whichever you did not write for homework, the other should be written today.

Essay #1 - Quantitative Analysis

1.  Which policy proposal has enjoyed the strongest support following September 11, 2001? 1 pt.

2.  Describe a trend in the data and draw conclusions about voter support for increased security measures after 2001. 2 pts.

3.  Explain how the information in the graphic relates to civil liberties and majority rule. 3 pts.


Essay #2 - Argument development

Develop an argument that explains whether Congress or the Supreme Court is best suited to settle disputes regarding civil rights and/or civil liberties.

• Articulate a defensible claim or thesis that responds to the prompt and establishes a line of reasoning. 1 pt.*
• Support your claim with at least TWO pieces of accurate and relevant information: 2 pts.
• At least ONE piece of evidence must be from one of the following documents:
• Federalist 78
• Bill of Rights
• Letter from a Birmingham Jail
• Use a SECOND piece of evidence from another document from the list, or your study of civil liberties/civil rights.

• Use reasoning to explain why your evidence supports your claim/thesis. 2 pts.

• Respond to an opposing perspective using refutation, concession, or rebuttal. 1 pt.

*Note, you MUST earn this point in order to earn 5 of the next 6 points

Close - CWE presentations